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Changing the Shape of Electronics  TOP  Japanese
TOP > Ball Technologies > Why Spherical > Market Opportunity
Market Opportunity

The world today depends on microelectronic information processing and sensing technologies. The electronic microchip is at the heart of modern computing, telecommunications, defense, education, manufacturing, medicine, and entertainment.

The reason semiconductors are so popular is simple: with each new generation of technology, integrated circuits provide more functionality, at less cost, than the previous generation. The average desktop computer today has more computing power than was required to send a man to the moon three decades ago -- at a minuscule fraction of the cost

To keep up this cost/performance dynamic, semiconductor manufacturers have typically placed an increasing number of functions on a single chip. "Moore's Law", Gordon Moore's 1965 axiom on microchip performance, stated that chips double in capacity every 18 months. First generation Pentium Pro microprocessors contained more than five million transistors, and the rate of technology advance is accelerating. It is now taken for granted that the electronic products introduced today will be superseded by newer generations within a year.

As chips increase in complexity, so do the manufacturing processes used to create them. Furthermore, the industry is approaching technical limits on the number of circuits that can be placed in a given area without generating unacceptable electrical interference between the circuits.

Since chips are typically produced in wafer lots, one way to increase productivity and lower the cost per chip, while allowing chip sizes to increase, is to increase the size (diameter) of the wafer. For this reason, the semiconductor industry, which only recently moved from 150-mm wafers to 200-mm wafers, is beginning to move to 300-mm wafers. A 300-mm wafer yields more than double the number of chips of a 200-mm wafer.

Moving to larger wafer sizes, while imperative from a productivity standpoint, will antiquate existing manufacturing technologies and facilities. Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, an industry group comprised of companies that produce chip-manufacturing equipment, estimates that the transition to 12-inch wafers will cost equipment makers and materials suppliers more than $21 billion. That would make this transition the most expensive industrial retooling in history and impose an enormous fixed-cost burden on manufacturers. In the past, individual chipmakers such as Intel Corp., IBM, or Texas Instruments have led the transition to larger wafers.

The time is right for revolutionary innovation in semiconductor manufacturing technology.
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